When the economy is up, there are always plenty of people out there proclaiming that it will go up forevermore because everything is different now and we'll have continuous growth.
When the economy is down, plenty of people likewise proclaim that it won't turn around because the world situation has structurally changed in ways that will prolong the recession indefinitely. Things will never be the way they used to be.
If you're going to use induction it really, really helps to look more than a few months back. Seriously.